Moving Averages
Use MAs for regime context and risk framing - not as a single-button system.
Herken grafiekpatronen: head and shoulders, driehoeken, vlaggen en meer.
What a Moving Average Does
A moving average (MA) calculates the average price over a specified number of periods. It smooths out noise to reveal the underlying direction of price. The two most common types:
- Simple Moving Average (SMA): Equal weight to all periods. SMA(20) = average of the last 20 closes.
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA): More weight to recent prices. Reacts faster to new data.
Common periods: 20 (short-term), 50 (medium-term), 200 (long-term). The 200-day MA is widely watched as a macro trend indicator.
MAs Lag by Design
This is the most important thing to understand: moving averages are lagging indicators. They tell you what has happened, not what will happen. By the time a MA turns, the move is already underway.
This lag is a feature, not a bug - it filters noise. But it means MAs are poor at catching reversals and terrible in choppy markets.
Using MAs for Context
The best use of MAs is as a contextual framework, not a signal generator:
- "Price is above the 200 MA" = macro trend is bullish. Favor long setups.
- "Price is below the 200 MA" = macro trend is bearish. Favor short setups or stay flat.
- "Price pulled back to the 20 EMA in an uptrend" = potential mean-reversion entry area.
MAs define the "above/below" context. They don't tell you exactly when to enter or exit.
Mean Reversion vs. Trend Following
MAs are used differently depending on the strategy type:
| Strategy | MA Use | Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Trend following | MA crossovers, price above/below MA | Stay with the trend until MA signals change |
| Mean reversion | Distance from MA | When price stretches far from MA, expect a pullback toward it |
These are opposite approaches. Using the wrong one for the current market regime is a common mistake.
The Golden Cross / Death Cross
The Golden Cross (50 MA crosses above 200 MA) and Death Cross (50 MA crosses below 200 MA) are widely publicized signals. Reality check:
- They are extremely lagging - by the time they trigger, a large portion of the move is done.
- They work well in hindsight on strong trends but generate false signals in sideways markets.
- They're better as regime indicators ("we're in a bullish regime") than as entry signals.
When MAs Are Least Useful
- Range-bound markets: Price oscillates around the MA, generating constant false crosses.
- Low-volatility drift: Price barely moves; MA is flat and uninformative.
- News-driven spikes: Sudden moves ignore MAs entirely.
Practice
Exercise
Write one rule for when moving averages are least useful. Then find a chart example that demonstrates this rule.
Key Takeaways
- MAs smooth noise but lag by design.
- Use MAs for context (above/below, regime), not as standalone signals.
- In chop, MA signals whipsaw - know when to ignore them.
- Golden/Death crosses are regime indicators, not precise entry signals.
- Match your MA usage to the current market regime.
Wat zijn grafiekpatronen?
Grafiekpatronen zijn herkenbare vormen op prijsgrafieken die potentiële toekomstige bewegingen suggereren. Ze ontstaan uit de collectieve psychologie van marktdeelnemers.
Omkeringspatronen
- Head and Shoulders: Drie pieken waarbij de middelste het hoogst is. Signaleert een mogelijke trendommekeer van bullish naar bearish.
- Double Top/Bottom: Twee pieken of dalen op ongeveer hetzelfde niveau. Signaleert dat de trend uitgeput raakt.
Voortzettingspatronen
- Vlaggen en wimpels: Korte consolidatieperioden na een sterke beweging, gevolgd door voortzetting.
- Driehoeken: Symmetrisch, stijgend of dalend — prijs comprimeert voordat het uitbreekt.
Belangrijkste punten
- Patronen zijn probabilistisch, niet gegarandeerd.
- Volume bevestigt patronen — uitbraken op hoog volume zijn betrouwbaarder.
- Context bepaalt of een patroon betekenisvol is.
- Wacht op bevestiging voordat je handelt op een patroon.
Les afgerond
Je hebt afgerond: Moving Averages.