MEDIOR · TECHNISCHE ANALYSE

Playbooks & Setups

Turn analysis into repeatable checklists: entry, risk, management, exit.

Test je strategie op historische data voordat je echt geld riskeert.

What Is a Playbook?

A playbook is a collection of well-defined setups that you trade repeatedly. Each setup has specific criteria for entry, stop placement, target, and management. Think of it as a recipe book - when market conditions match a recipe, you execute it.

The purpose of a playbook is to constrain your behavior. Without one, every chart looks like an opportunity, and you end up taking random trades based on impulse. With a playbook, you only trade when conditions match your predefined criteria.

Anatomy of a Setup

Every setup in your playbook should define:

Component	What it answers	Example
Context	What market conditions must be true?	Price above 200 MA, daily uptrend
Trigger	What specific event initiates the trade?	Bullish engulfing at 20 EMA pullback
Entry	Where exactly do you enter?	Above the engulfing candle high
Stop	Where is the trade invalidated?	Below the engulfing candle low
Target	Where do you take profit?	Previous swing high or 2R
Size	How much do you risk?	1% of account
Management	How do you manage the trade once open?	Trail stop to breakeven after 1R

Separating Setup from Execution

A common mistake is conflating "seeing a setup" with "taking a trade." These are separate steps:

Setup identification: "The conditions for my bull flag setup are present."
Execution decision: "Does this specific instance meet ALL my criteria? Is the risk/reward acceptable? Am I in the right mental state?"

Not every setup should be traded. Sometimes the setup is there but the context is wrong, the size doesn't work, or you're emotionally compromised. A playbook gives you permission to pass on setups that don't fully qualify.

Building Your First Playbook

Start small. One or two setups is enough. Quality over quantity:

Step 1: Choose one setup you understand well (e.g., pullback to MA in a trend).
Step 2: Define all 7 components (context, trigger, entry, stop, target, size, management).
Step 3: Backtest it on historical data. Does it have positive expectancy?
Step 4: Paper trade it for 20+ occurrences. Track results in your journal.
Step 5: Review and refine. Add a second setup only after the first is consistent.

Principle: If you cannot describe your setup in writing, you cannot repeat it consistently. The act of writing it down forces clarity.

Tracking Outcomes Per Setup

Your journal should tag each trade with the setup name. Over time, this lets you calculate statistics per setup:

Win rate per setup
Average R-multiple per setup
Best/worst market conditions for each setup
Which setups to keep, refine, or discard

This data-driven approach replaces "I feel like this works" with "the data shows this works in X conditions with Y expectancy."

Example Playbook Entry

SETUP: Trend Pullback to 20 EMA CONTEXT: Daily trend up (HH/HL), price above 200 MA TRIGGER: 4h candle closes bullish after touching 20 EMA ENTRY: Above trigger candle high (limit or stop entry) STOP: Below the 20 EMA or below the pullback low TARGET: Previous swing high or 2:1 R/R minimum SIZE: 1% account risk MANAGEMENT: Move stop to breakeven at 1R Trail by 1 ATR after 1.5R NOTES: Skip if earnings within 2 days Skip if RSI(14) below 40 on daily

Practice

Exercise

Write a complete playbook entry for one setup you like (real or simulated). Include all 7 components plus any "skip" conditions. Be as specific as possible - if someone else read your playbook, could they execute the setup without asking you questions?

Key Takeaways

A playbook constrains impulsive behavior and creates consistency.
Every setup needs: context, trigger, entry, stop, target, size, management.
Not every setup should be traded - execution is a separate decision.
Start with 1-2 setups. Add more only after consistency.
Track per-setup statistics to make data-driven improvements.

Wat is backtesting?

Backtesting is het testen van een handelsstrategie op historische data om te zien hoe het zou hebben gepresteerd. Het is een essentiële stap voordat je echt geld riskeert.

Hoe backtest je?

Definieer je strategie met duidelijke regels (entry, exit, stop-loss).
Pas de regels toe op historische data zonder voorkennis.
Registreer elke trade: winst, verlies, drawdown.
Bereken statistieken: winstpercentage, gemiddelde winst/verlies, max drawdown.

Belangrijkste punten

Backtesting valideert je strategie voordat je echt geld riskeert.
Historische prestaties garanderen geen toekomstige resultaten.
Vermijd overfitting — een strategie die perfect past op het verleden werkt zelden in de toekomst.
Forward testing (paper trading) is de volgende stap na backtesting.

Les afgerond

Je hebt afgerond: Playbooks & Setups.